Monday 17 November 2008

Defining an Economic Recession



The United States has been experiencing economic recession since early of the year 2008. Latvia, Estonia and Lithuania are also at risk of facing economic recession for the next 12 months. While Canada, Britain and Japan may foresee a recession in their economy in the future.

With all this recession risks, ordinary people, could not help but wonder what exactly is an economic recession.

The economic cycle is that when an economy is strong, people are employed and earning. There will be a great demand for outputs like food, electronics, vehicles and other products. The production will increase until it exceeds the actual demand. This would create a rise in prices or inflation.

Salary would then have difficulty accommodating the rising prices of products. The prices will be too expensive for consumers, that they will stop buying or sales would not increase. When the demand decreases, companies will lay off workers creating a large population of unemployed work force.

These are several signs of an economic recession. Decline in housing prices, decline in the stock market, and business expansion plans being put on hold are also signs of a recession.

According to the United States National Bureau of Economic Research, it is "a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales."

Economic recession is a contraction phase of the business cycle. The common definition for recession is that there is a relative decline in a country’s gross domestic product or GDP. Having a negative real economic growth for two or more successive quarters is also a telltale sign for economic recession.

Gross domestic product is the market value of all the products and services produced in a region or commonly, country, in a year. GDP is the total output of the economy. GDP is measured every quarter. Since the gross domestic product or the output is declining. There is less need for people who are creating the product. Firms and companies will sever their ties with several employees resulting to unemployment.

A severe or long recession could be an economic depression. The difference between recession and depression is when the GDP is declining by 10%, that means what the economy is experiencing is already depression. A short –lived recession is often called economic correction.

Based on the definition of the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), recession can last “more than a few months.” Therefore, an official announcement that a country or region is experiencing recession can only be made after economic decline for six months. Typically, a normal economic recession lasts for approximately one year.

Periodic recessions are part of a country’s or region’s economy. According to Tom Harris (How Recession Works), the United States has an economic pattern. The United States economy will expand for six until ten years and then enter a recession for about six months or two years. The start of the recession is called the peak, end of recession if trough. Meanwhile the period of time between two peaks or two recessions is called the business cycle.

NBER, a private, non profit research organization studies the American economy. The Business Cycle Dating Committee maintains the chronology of business cycle. They also decides whether the economy is in recession or expansion

Economists may argue with the definition of an economic recession. They may even debate whether the United States, specifically is experiencing an economic downturn. But it is not only the economists who can decide and identify an economic downfall, it is the ordinary people who can readily identify economic growth and demise.

Sunday 16 November 2008

Some of the Benefits of an Economic Recession



A lot of people think that an economic recession is pretty bad news. While we know that is partly true, there are also certain benefits.

When the economy is in recession, it won’t be long before you get a check from the Inland Revenue or IRS. This may vary between $300 to $1,200 which is the government’s way of trying to help the economy get back on it's feet by creating spending.

If you are wondering how much you will get, you can compute for this using the economic stimulus tax calculator. This is considered to be a rebate so if you didn’t get it this year, you will in 2009. This was done when the economy was in recession in 2000 but most of the checks came in when the economy was recovering a year later.

During an economic recession, the majority of bonds and stocks are way undervalued. This means it can be a bargain to buy them right now so go for it, carefully! Before you go on a shopping spree, find out which company’s shares will do better once the economy does actually recover. With that in mind, it will be easy to decide which companies you should invest in. If your one of the few that's in a good financial position at this time it is also possible to buy new homes when the prices have reached an all time low.

One solution to curb the economic recession is for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates. This means that as long as you have good credit ratings, you will be able to borrow money from the bank.

As a consumer, an economic recession brings tax breaks. What happens is that you don’t have to pay the IRS as much this year because of the deduction for private mortgage insurance which happens to be an extension of the sales tax write off and also a boost in the alternative minimum tax exemption amount.

If you are still working, an economic recession may also increase retirement account limits. You can do this by using your rebate check to turbocharge your retirement savings and investing this in a Roth or Traditional IRA. Some people have decided to invest it in both.



Should your gross income is $100,000 and below, you can now roll over your 401(k) directly into a Roth IRA without having your funds go through a Rollover Traditional IRA first. But if your income is above $100,000, just wait until 2010 when the income limit disappears so that you too can invest this into your retirement account.

There are people who say that an economic recession is also good for the environment because the consumer will be forced to cut costs. People will more likely trade in their sports utility vehicles or SUV’s for more fuel efficient vehicles. This in turn will reduce the number of carbon gases that are released into the air. Unfortunately, industries won’t be able to do the same.

Instead of going to the store to buy something you like, more people will order and purchase the same items online thus increasing business over the web. The same goes for advertising because it is much cheaper to do this online that billboards or newspapers.

There are benefits to an economic recession even if many of us see that nothing good comes out of it. The only consolation is that it is only temporary and the economy will recover by late this year or early next.

Read more about what Economic Recession is and what it could mean for you and your family.